At the end of 2023, the newspaper El País published an article titled: Greenhouse gas emissions fall to historic lows in Spain (link here). Just a few lines later, it stated that CO₂ emissions in 2023 had reached their lowest level since 1990. Unless we consider that Spain’s history began in 1990, it is easy to see the inaccuracy of the headline.
In the author’s defense, the imprecision may be due not only to the pursuit of a sensationalist headline. Environmental accounting, including emissions, is relatively recent and many series are only available for very short time spans. Spain’s National Emissions Inventory, which feeds into the IPCC, begins its “historical” series in 1990. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 were indeed the lowest of that historical series — but not of Spain’s history.
How have greenhouse gas emissions evolved in Spain’s recent history? What have been the main sources of emissions, and how have they changed over time? How do our emissions compare with those of the rest of the world? Are we more or less polluting? In this entry, we provide answers to these questions based on our historical estimates of Spain’s emissions series, available on this website (more data here). In addition, we have published a more detailed scientific article analyzing the historical evolution of emissions in Spain (here).
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Between 1860 and 2017, total emissions in Spain almost multiplied tenfold, rising from 31 million tons of CO₂e to 272 million (with a peak of 376 million in 2005, just before the Great Recession) (see Figure 1A). Note that we account for all emissions, including CH₄ and N₂O, which are converted into CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e).
The increase in emissions has not been linear over the 160 years analyzed. For nearly a century, from the mid-19th to the mid-20th century, emission levels remained relatively stable. The major acceleration took place from the mid-20th century, coinciding with the country’s economic take-off after the stagnation of early Francoism. Between 1950 and 2005, emissions grew at an average annual rate of 3.5%, compared to 1.4% for the whole period. Per capita emissions, which had remained around 2 tons of CO₂e until 1950, reached their historical peak in 2005 at 8.5 tons of CO₂e.
Within this growth trajectory, there were also periods of contraction. The most significant occurred during the Civil War, the economic crisis of the early 1980s, and above all after the Great Recession of 2008 (further accentuated by COVID-19). The recent decline, lasting two decades now, is explained by several factors such as efficiency improvements (particularly through the expansion of renewables), the outsourcing of emissions to third countries, and periods of economic contraction (a subject we will address in another entry).
We often associate the origins of climate change with the use of fossil fuels during the Industrial Revolution. However, we now know that beyond fossil fuels, other emission sources — mainly linked to agricultural activities — have played a key role in climate change. Our historical estimates of emissions in Spain allow us to identify the main sources of emissions and how they have changed over time.
Figure 1. Total greenhouse gas emissions by type in absolute values (a), annual percentage (b), and cumulative annual percentage (c).
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In 1860, at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, 92% of emissions came from agricultural activities and land-use changes. These were mainly explained by methane (CH₄) emissions from livestock — which played a key role not only in food supply but also in traction and transport — and by CO₂ emissions generated through deforestation. The steady expansion of agricultural land during the 19th century largely came at the expense of forests (deforestation) and required an increasing number of animals (although livestock for food production may have declined).
By the mid-19th century, coal emissions barely represented 2 million tons of CO₂ out of a total of 31 million. From that point on, there was a gradual transition towards fossil emissions: first dominated by coal, later by oil (the main emission source since 1966), and more recently by natural gas (see Figure 1B). Today, “agricultural” emissions represent only about 14% of the total, and some of those activities have even become a carbon sink, generating what is technically considered “negative emissions.” The expansion of forest area and increased forest density have led to a strong growth in forest biomass and, consequently, in their carbon stock (more information here).
The Industrial Revolution triggered the rise of emissions and climate change. However, this cannot be explained (in Spain or globally) by coal use in factories alone, but also by the growing demand for plant-based products to feed a rising population and supply raw materials for new industries.
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The history of Spain’s emissions shows both similarities and differences compared to global trends. In both cases, there has been strong growth over the past two centuries, a sharper acceleration since the mid-20th century, and a transition from agricultural to fossil emissions. In Spain, the level and growth of emissions were slower than in the rest of the world until the mid-20th century. After that, fluctuations — while following global trends — were more abrupt, both in phases of growth and in phases of decline. When emissions rose, they rose faster than the global average; when they fell, they also fell faster.
In Spain, although “agricultural” emissions were significant, they accounted for a smaller share than in other countries. This difference is essentially due to historical and geographic factors. By the start of the Industrial Revolution in Spain (as in other countries), the agricultural frontier had already expanded considerably, and much of the country had already been deforested. Moreover, Spanish forests are much less dense than those in other parts of the world. On average, converting one hectare of land to crops in Spain is far less impactful than doing so in a tropical country.
This helps explain the gap between Spain’s per capita emissions and the global average. Except for a brief period in the 21st century, Spain’s per capita emissions have been lower than the global average (Figure 2B). However, if we focus only on fossil fuel emissions, they were slightly below the global average until the mid-20th century, then well above it until the Great Recession, after which they fell to almost converge with the global mean.
In terms of historical responsibility for climate change (measured as cumulative per capita emissions), Spain’s emissions are clearly lower if all gases are counted, and slightly lower if only fossil CO₂ is included. The inhabitants of Spain (all those who have lived since 1860) have emitted an average of nearly 4 tons of CO₂e per year, compared to 6 tons per person globally. Spain has generated less impact than the global average, despite being a richer country than the global mean.
That conclusion, however, should be nuanced, as it does not account for emissions transferred through trade (results on this will be shared soon), and it does not adjust responsibilities to the geographic conditions of each country (Spain emits less than other countries for the same activity simply due to its geographic characteristics).
Figure 2. Annual and cumulative per capita emissions in Spain and the world. Fossil fuel CO₂ emissions are distinguished from total greenhouse gas emissions.
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Emission levels in Spain are not the lowest in history, although it is true that the past two decades have seen a significant decline. As elsewhere in the world, historical emission levels accelerated in the 1950s and, up until the Great Recession, reached levels above the global average. Even so, the responsibility of Spain’s inhabitants (among whom there are wide inequalities) has been similar to that of the rest of the world if we consider only fossil fuels, and lower if we include all emissions. Still, emission levels in Spain (and worldwide) remain high. High here means above safe thresholds or levels compatible with current climate agreements. Will it be possible to sustain the decline and reach those safety thresholds? That is a question we will address in future posts.